Heard Bill Powers on FSN interview, and he made a strong case for natural gas. Then read his article that used analysis from Stephen Brown and Mine Yucel, two researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Their analysis, in sum, states that gas prices have maintained a 10 to 1 historical average. And should trade at a 6 to 1 average given that oil has 6x as much energy.
Some gas plays include, United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG trading at $11)
Hydraulic fracturing services are in huge demand.
GMX Resources (NYSE:GMXR)
Comstock Resources (NYSE:CRK)
Halliburton (NYSE:HAL)
Weatherford International (NYSE:WFT)
A word of caution from Kramer:
Down on Natural Gas
In the Thursday "Sell Block" segment, Cramer did an official about-face on the natural gas stocks, which he has championed as a bridge fuel towards an energy independent future.
With nuclear power on the sidelines after the Japanese earthquake, many investors feel that natural gas is the logical choice to fill the gap. But Cramer noted that while coal is priced internationally, natural gas is priced locally, and without liquified natural gas (LNG) terminals to export the stuff, our natural gas is stuck right here at home.
Cramer said he's still bullish on Southwestern Energy (SWN), a stock which he owns for his charitable trust, Action Alerts PLUS, and Chesapeake Energy (CHK), which is transitioning away from gas and into oil, but all others are sadly only investable as a takeover.
Cramer said he'd be more bullish if the natural gas subsidy for trucks ever passes Congress, but that seems unlikely in lieu of new EPA regulations for coal which does not force polluting plant to shut down.
Cramer also reminded viewers that the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is not investable under any circumstance, as the fund does not own gas itself, but rather futures contracts that don't work as investors think they do.
Also on the sell block was Chart Industries (GTLS), a stock that's up 28% in six weeks since Cramer recommended it. Cramer called Chart a "known story" and said the time to sell is now.
Perhaps the only silver lining in the natural gas story was KBR (KBR), which is building LNG terminals for import and export. But Cramer said even this company wouldn't see any big gains from natural gas for a long time.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Reading List
Call to Action
Waiting for Your Cat To Bark
recommended by author of the Google Analytics book I'm reading now.
Waiting for Your Cat To Bark
recommended by author of the Google Analytics book I'm reading now.
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
Bert Dohmen is Bearish
Bert Dohmen was on financial sense last week and made a pretty good argument for a big correction. Here is some copy from his web site.
OUR CURRENT VIEW, by Bert Dohmen (March-1-2011):
The weight of the evidence suggests that a rally top has been made for the near term. As active traders and investors, we would not go bargain hunting too early. If the 1295 level on the S&P 500 holds, there could be another bounce. If it’s penetrated on a closing basis, watch out below.
For a good bottom, you must see real concern amongst investors, followed by genuine fear. That will take some time to develop. We will keep our valued subscribers to the trading services (SMARTE TRADE for stocks, and the FEARLESS INDEX & ETF TRADER for ETFs) informed on virtually a daily basis. There will be excellent trading opportunities, both long and short.
THE SHORT TERM : Excerpt from the WELLINGTON LETTER Feb.28 issue
On Feb. 23, we wrote: The character of the market has now changed to the bearish side: rallies on low volume, followed by declines on high volume. The consensus of analysts in the media is that this is a bargain hunting opportunity. Yes, we should have a bounce, but it may be brief and weak. That will be followed by a steeper decline. We don’t want to go looking for bargains.
Remember, in October last year we wrote about “a change in the character of the market.” We noted that stocks rallied even on the worst news. That gave a tipoff to the upcoming market rally. Now we are starting to see the first signs of a change to the opposite. But such transitions don’t occur from one day to the next.
OUR CURRENT VIEW, by Bert Dohmen (March-1-2011):
The weight of the evidence suggests that a rally top has been made for the near term. As active traders and investors, we would not go bargain hunting too early. If the 1295 level on the S&P 500 holds, there could be another bounce. If it’s penetrated on a closing basis, watch out below.
For a good bottom, you must see real concern amongst investors, followed by genuine fear. That will take some time to develop. We will keep our valued subscribers to the trading services (SMARTE TRADE for stocks, and the FEARLESS INDEX & ETF TRADER for ETFs) informed on virtually a daily basis. There will be excellent trading opportunities, both long and short.
THE SHORT TERM : Excerpt from the WELLINGTON LETTER Feb.28 issue
On Feb. 23, we wrote: The character of the market has now changed to the bearish side: rallies on low volume, followed by declines on high volume. The consensus of analysts in the media is that this is a bargain hunting opportunity. Yes, we should have a bounce, but it may be brief and weak. That will be followed by a steeper decline. We don’t want to go looking for bargains.
Remember, in October last year we wrote about “a change in the character of the market.” We noted that stocks rallied even on the worst news. That gave a tipoff to the upcoming market rally. Now we are starting to see the first signs of a change to the opposite. But such transitions don’t occur from one day to the next.
Thursday, March 03, 2011
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Wednesday, January 05, 2011
A Look Back at 2010
I like the idea of looking back and reflecting on what happened last year. I found these questions in a blog post by Rich Schefren.
What were your greatest accomplishments in 2010?
1. The birth of my baby daughter Nadia Jay Dasia
2. Switched to pellet heating (in November)
3. Bought a new Chevy Traverse
4. Celebrated by parents 50th wedding aniversary
5. Learned much more about social marketing and facebook
6. Began learning about html 5 (also a goal this year)
7. Had a successful golf tournament fund raiser for Jaiden's Angel
8. Recieved my first raise and bonus with woodpellets.com
9. Put up a new swing set play area for the kids
10. Replaced the front fender on the toyota avalon
11. Strengthed my marriage
12. Grew spiritually
13. Rekindled lost relationship with Jeff B.
14. Spent a fantastic week with the family at the beach
What were your biggest disappointments in 2010?
1.My trading (lost 20K, gained it back, then lost it again)
2.Still no side business or revenue streams
3.Never learned asp.net MVC
4.Didn't stick with my health goals (workouts, eating)
5.Didn't give back anything to the universe (via blog, articles)
How did you limit yourself last year, and how can you remove those limits in 2011?
1. Don't follow through on investment ideas/advice
2. Don't put in the work required to acheive goals
3. Afraid the share my opionion; raise my voice (getting better)
4.Didn't use my time wisely
What were your greatest accomplishments in 2010?
1. The birth of my baby daughter Nadia Jay Dasia
2. Switched to pellet heating (in November)
3. Bought a new Chevy Traverse
4. Celebrated by parents 50th wedding aniversary
5. Learned much more about social marketing and facebook
6. Began learning about html 5 (also a goal this year)
7. Had a successful golf tournament fund raiser for Jaiden's Angel
8. Recieved my first raise and bonus with woodpellets.com
9. Put up a new swing set play area for the kids
10. Replaced the front fender on the toyota avalon
11. Strengthed my marriage
12. Grew spiritually
13. Rekindled lost relationship with Jeff B.
14. Spent a fantastic week with the family at the beach
What were your biggest disappointments in 2010?
1.My trading (lost 20K, gained it back, then lost it again)
2.Still no side business or revenue streams
3.Never learned asp.net MVC
4.Didn't stick with my health goals (workouts, eating)
5.Didn't give back anything to the universe (via blog, articles)
How did you limit yourself last year, and how can you remove those limits in 2011?
1. Don't follow through on investment ideas/advice
2. Don't put in the work required to acheive goals
3. Afraid the share my opionion; raise my voice (getting better)
4.Didn't use my time wisely
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